How to make Russia pay if there is no Russia?
Russia is losing the war. But how do you make her pay? Without the first, there will be no second. However, when the second question becomes the only one, we must have a plan of action.
The West does not know how to make Russia pay. Nobody knows, and that's a huge problem.
Post-war Ukraine can get a Marshall Plan from the West. But the aggressor must suffer. Not "Oh, you are defeated, sit in a corner and do not interfere," but "Now you will silently do this, or I will make it even more painful". This simple lesson will be the end of the war. Any war at any time.
What do we do? In this text, we will not study war. Only Russia and payment. Nothing superfluous: how to make the aggressor pay. Good for the winners and inevitable for the losers.
Russia has a large-scale gas transportation system. I admit that within the framework of a military confrontation, a part of this pipe may accidentally smoke, burn out and stop working. This is fine. But we will definitely not destroy the entire system – it is too huge.
The so-called Russian Federation should be destroyed into small states. Otherwise, Moscow will start the countdown to the next collector of Russian lands. Don't want war with Russia? Let there be no Russia. And we have two simple questions.
First, how to pay to a country that no longer exists.
Secondly, how to survive the fragments of a country that no longer exists. Otherwise, there is no one to pay. And then they will again gather in one country. And you will read articles about tank battles somewhere in Kazakhstan.
But Russia depends on Russian gas. Everyone was shouting about Europe, which loves Russian gas. But Europe passed the winter perfectly. Not without problems, but without disaster. And what Russia got, you can see in the state budget. There is money and there is nothing to buy. There is money, but not enough for the army. Enough for a small army, but Putin needs large hordes.
There was a popular idea that Europe is tightly dependent on Russian gas. Analysts have confused comfort with vital necessity. But there is a simple rule. The exporter always depends on his level of sales.
Imagine you are a farmer. I didn't buy your milk and you didn't get money. Why did I do it? Maybe I don't like lactose. But I'm a client, and that's your problem. You didn't get my money. But you need to sell your product somewhere. Milk turns sour quickly. You need money to feed the cows. You need money for logistics. But there is no money because I did not want to drink milk. That's how the market works.
But you are a farmer, not me. You need 100% confidence that the situation will not happen again. If this happens again, you will have to close the business. Or a debt collector will. So you have a debt the size of Algeria.
Russia depends on energy carriers. An example was the war in Afghanistan. As soon as the oil was allowed, the USSR began to teach the Pashtuns how to love socialism. Risks did not frighten Moscow. Losses did not frighten Moscow. Military disgrace did not frighten Moscow, and even vice versa. Other countries saw the weakness of the Soviet army and the Soviet state. But Moscow didn't care.
And then the price of oil fell. The Soviet Union changed its mind. So there is no need to scare Russia or be afraid of the Russian army. You must remember that Russia is afraid of the oil and gas markets. You are only a buyer, not a victim. And you can punish the oil farmer. He wants to sell some black milk for a new war, but you are not buying. Russian oil is counter to the Russian war.
Russia must be divided. In another case, the Russian horde will start another war with one of the neighbors. So many neighbors. Moscow can start many wars. This is done with the click of a finger. Putin can say that Lenin created Mongolia, and the Russian army will shout "Goyda" and bomb the hospital.
The collapse of Russia is an eco-friendly and simple thing that you should accept. All empires fall apart. Now we see modern countries that have thrown off their ballast. The war showed that without the collapse of the last empire, the future will not come.
Let's say you want to destroy Russia. But you still don't know how to do it. Look at history. The same thing happened after World War I. The empire is mired in war. The fighting knocked Russia down and began to disintegrate. Now, this is happening in Ukraine. RF is defeated. The army is demoralized and suffered huge losses. The industry will not be able to restore all the equipment that the Russian army has lost. History repeated itself.
Russia has already lost its monopoly on domestic violence. Citizens trade in unprecedented volumes of weapons. When the USSR collapsed, the country was controlled by gangs. When the Russian Federation collapses, the country will be controlled by private military companies and the so-called people's militias. Even if you don't want the collapse of Russia, the Kremlin has done everything for this idea.
You don't need NATO troops to destroy Russia. She will do it herself. But there is one action that the West simply must take. This is a controlled decay.
When Russia collapses (it's a matter of time), a strong leader cannot be allowed to emerge. Otherwise, the bloody history of the USSR will be repeated. Something that may seem small to you today will be planting nuclear bombs in Cuba tomorrow. Fortunately, the West has excellent allies close to Russia. They will do it themselves. Ukraine, Poland, Finland - this is an incomplete list of countries that Russia threatened at different times. And debts will be paid in full.
Russia will fall apart. Her neighbors will supervise the process. But we must do it together, even if the mission is not done by you. When the last empire collapses properly, you will see a very different world. Ukraine and other Eastern European countries are already helping you see it.
If we destroy the empire according to the script, we will have to think about its ruins. Who will live there? What to do to avoid the migration crisis? How to take away the remnants of nuclear weapons from the new republics? We need hard leverage. And this leverage exists.
The Kremlin has shown that it makes no sense to talk to him. But some companies and corporations control oil and gas. You can agree with them. This is not Putin, these are business people. But even business citizens of Russia should be perceived as potential imperials. And don't give them too much power.
Do you want to receive gas from Siberia? This means that it is necessary to separate the region controlled by the mining company. Do you want to deliver gas to Europe? Then we will divide the empire, not by regions. We will divide Russia along the gas pipeline. Each important site must be independent of another element of the industry. So we will make it impossible to return to the authoritarian model.
Don't say that there are no local forces in the Russian regions. While you go to negotiate in Moscow, they will not be. As long as you see Moscow in any Russian news, there will be no serious players on the ground. But if you create these forces by shifting your attention to the regions, this will be the most needed conversation in the history of the Western world.
When the Russians see the benefits of controlled independence for the region, they will turn their backs on Moscow. And you can work with it. Are you afraid to destroy Putin? Then it is wiser to change governors in key areas.
And then we keep going. Sanctions from Russia cannot be lifted. You can't ship weapons there. For the empire not to succumb to revanchism, it will have to be controlled for more than a dozen years. But this does not require military intervention. The principle of ancient Rome: divide and conquer.
Let's say that Russia has collapsed. The empire could not stand the war and the internal crisis. You saw it after World War I. Tell me what exactly will remain of Russia?
The collapse of Russia will leave a lot of gas. It will be pumped by a large gas transportation system. But who will control the pipe?
When empires fall apart, predictions don't make sense. There will be many tiny states or a few large ones. Each new state will receive its own section of the pipeline. The pipe will be older than this state.
Do you think the new states will value gas transit? This is their only source of income.
I think that 10 new states will value transit more than Russia does. The Kursk People's Republic will not turn off the gas valve to annoy the Ukrainian prime minister.
If Moscow closes the pipe, Putin will not even notice the consequences. If the pipe is blocked by a small state, it will actually deprive itself of a huge part of its income. Moscow is too far. Moscow does not understand the price of its actions, because other regions are paying for it.
Why will the new republics not dare to scare Europe with gas? So they only scare themselves. First, Europe did not fall from the gas confrontation with Russia. Secondly, this battle hit Russia, not Europe. And small states will not win where a huge empire has been disgraced.
If Europe receives threats from one post-Russian republic, another post-Russian republic will eliminate the threat. A threat to Europe is a threat to all post-Russian republics. I propose to solve the problem. If Russia is unable to live without war, let other states live instead of Russia.
Russia can bluff as long as it's intact. Violate territorial integrity once – and each Udmurtia will fight for its section of the pipe. 300 Spartans will look like schoolboys to you.
Russian gas fields are too far from Europe. So the pipelines will always have something to fill. The pipe will feed the republics that will never become Russia again.
Gazprom has a monopoly on killing the Russian economy for political gains. This is a terrible partner. He must be punished. Then Putin's political victories will end, along with the possibility of gas manipulations. The farmer can't sell black milk, so let him drink it himself.
The new republics will depend on their pipe section. They will have to agree to all our conditions. Reparations can be defined as a percentage of transit in a particular state. Credit for a young republic with old sins. You can pay off the loan in installments. Or we'll take everything.
Don't be afraid of the horde. This should disappear. But the collapse of Russia will not free the post-Russian territories from reparations. They will pay for everything. And I already told you the easiest way to do it.
The collapse of Russia costs less than a war with Russia every 10 years. And the Russians will not be able to live without war. So, it's time to draw new states on the map.
Then you will only hear about wars in the movies, not in the media.
У самурая нет цели, есть только путь. Мы боремся за объективную информацию.
Поддержите? Кнопки под статьей.